EDITORIAL: WILL AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE MAKE SOUTH ASIA UNINHABITABLE?
Vinod Mubayi
Gar Firdaus bar ru-e-zamin ast
Hamin asto hamin asto hamin ast
[If there is a paradise on earth/It is this, it is this, it is this!]
This verse is commonly believed to have been written in praise of the scenic beauty of the vale of Kashmir but a recent book [Rana Safvi’s “Shahjahanabad”] presents credible evidence that these lines refer instead to the city of Delhi and, likely, date back to Amir Khusro. If that is indeed the case, one can gauge how far this city has fallen from its earlier image by citing just one fact: Delhi’s air pollution. In fact, Delhi has gained international notoriety for being the world’s most polluted major city. A few decades ago, this position was occupied by Beijing, but while that city has managed to improve its air quality considerably, Delhi shows no signs of doing so anytime soon.
But it is not just Delhi. Very recent air quality data show that Lahore is now competing with Delhi for the title of the world’s most polluted major city. This race to the bottom has been joined by several other large cities in South Asia in the northern part of the subcontinent along the belt that stretches from Peshawar in the west to Dhaka in the east and includes other large urban areas like Lucknow, Patna, and Kolkata. In fact, seven out of the ten most polluted major cities in the world are in South Asia including the capitals of India, Bangladesh, and Nepal and two of the largest cities of Pakistan.
Air quality is affected by the quantity and type of the pollutants that are present in the air that people located in a particular area breathe. The most common of these pollutants used to calculate the air quality index AQI are: particulate matter, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, ammonia, and lead. India’s Central Pollution Control Board also includes concentrations of benzene, arsenic, and nickel as air pollutants. Computation of the AQI requires an air pollutant concentration over a specified averaging period, such as 24 hours or 8 hours, obtained from an air monitor or model. Taken together, concentration and time represent the dose of the air pollutant. Since AQI levels vary over time, from day to day, month to month and so on, AQI values are grouped into ranges that convey acceptability to the public in terms of the risk of health consequences, e.g., an AQI from 0-50 is good, 51-100 moderate, 100-150 unhealthy for sensitive individuals, 150-200 unhealthy, 200-300 very unhealthy, and > 300 hazardous. Particulate matter (PM) that consists of tiny solid particles or liquid droplet aerosols are specified by their size or aerodynamic diameter measured in micrometers (one-millionth of a meter). PM 2.5 particles (equal to or smaller than 2.5 micrometers) are of the greatest concern since they can be inhaled directly into the lungs or even enter the bloodstream and cause the most severe health problems such as lung and heart disease. PM 10 particles cause respiratory irritation and are a trigger for asthma attacks. Other pollutants such as ozone and nitrogen dioxide also cause damage to airways and lungs.
It is not a well-known or well-advertised fact that air pollution is the largest external threat to human health globally. Air pollution in U.S. cities was the major factor responsible for the establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency EPA in 1970 and the passage of the Clean Air Act that significantly improved air quality in many areas. It is estimated that over 7 billion people in the world, over 95% of the world population, live in areas where the PM 2.5 concentration exceeds the threshold of 5 micrograms/cubic meter, that the World Health Organization WHO has established as a safe limiting standard. Based on this, it is calculated that air pollution leads to a loss of life expectancy of more than 2 years for the average inhabitant of the world, a loss that is comparable to that from smoking and exceeds that from other diseases such as HIV and malaria and from hazards such as deaths from traffic accidents. However, much like the health consequences from other adverse phenomena, there is a pronounced difference in the average loss of life expectancy (LLE) due to exceeding the WHO standard from air pollution between the rich and poor countries. One estimate is that average LLE in the U.S. is 0.3 years while it is 2.5 years in China and 5.3 years in India. Some other estimates put the average LLE in India even higher at 7 years.
One of the major causes of air pollution is the byproducts of the combustion of fossil fuels; coal, petroleum products like gasoline and diesel, and natural gas. Coal and natural gas are used to generate electricity, and provide fuel for industry, while gasoline and diesel are the mainstays of the transport sector. The automobile led development pattern of the urban areas in South Asia over the last two decades is a major contributor to worsening air quality that is reflected in the global air quality statistics. The middle and upper classes who own private cars wish to imitate the western, typically US, lifestyle without the state having the ability or the capacity to effectively implement pollution control measures.
However, while the pollutants from fossil fuel combustion have their deleterious impact in a largely local area, there is another byproduct of fossil fuel combustion, largely the gas carbon dioxide, that has shot into prominence as a greenhouse gas (GHG), contributing to global warming. This process has been going on for around two hundred years since the industrial revolution made coal the major fuel and the main countries responsible for carbon emissions are the developed, industrialized countries with the United States by far the largest single contributor historically. Currently, China ranks no. 1 in GHG emissions, the U.S. is no. 2, and India is no. 3. It is one of the great ironies of history, however, that the countries of the Global South, of which South Asia is very much a part with almost half of the total population of the Global South countries, will suffer the most from the ravages of global warming as the temperatures in the lands closer to the Equator climb to unprecedented levels. A paper authored by Dr. Gothamie Weerakoon and Adnan Rehmat entitled “The Role of Nitrogen Pollution in Aggravating South Asia’s Climate Crisis” published on the Factum.lk site on January 25, 2025 summarizes the problem of climate change for South Asia succinctly:
“The overall South Asia region is a large contributor to climate change, but also one of most vulnerable to it, and is under elevated climate crisis stress that impacts more people than in any other geographic region. The region is living through a “new climate normal” in which intensifying heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and floods are testing the limits of government, businesses, and citizens to adapt. More than half of all South Asians have been directly affected by one or more climate-related disasters in the 21st century. The changing climate could sharply diminish living conditions for up to 800 million people, in a region that already has some of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable populations, according to the World Bank. This number is only set to grow as temperatures continue to increase. Research suggests the Global South will suffer the most from climate change, and that South Asia will be one of the hardest hit regions. Climate migration in South Asia is predicted to triple to over 62 million by 2050, according to ActionAid International and Climate Action Network South Asia.”
2023 was the planet’s hottest year since widespread temperature recording began and it was exceeded in 2024. NASA reported that global temperatures in 2024 were 2.30 degrees Fahrenheit (1.28 degrees Celsius) above the agency’s 20th-century baseline (1951-1980), which tops the record set in 2023. A few days ago, Indian newspapers carried the news that February 2025 was the hottest February on record in India since temperature recording began 125 years ago and also the driest, with rainfall less than half of the average over the past century.
Since Donald Trump assumed the US presidency a month and a half ago, there is widespread apprehension that global warming will accelerate under his administration. Trump is at the head of a prominent group of “climate denialists” who do not believe in the science of global warming and his government has put in place programs to significantly increase fossil fuel production and rescind or reverse many initiatives of the previous administration to curb carbon emissions and promote alternative energy policies. This is tantamount to a crime against humanity given the extremely serious nature of the climate problem but, unfortunately, there is no world government to enforce sanity and punish global crime.
The latest news of Trump’s chaotic approach to governing is the firing and layoffs of scientists and technical personnel including meteorologists at the US climate agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA. This is bound to have very serious repercussions worldwide as NOAA’s data and models support climate monitoring, forecasting and disaster preparedness worldwide. A leading climate scientist in India Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology termed the NOAA layoffs as a global crisis with a large impact on India as monsoon forecasts, cyclone tracking and climate projections rely on NOAA’s models. Koll pointed out that “Half of the Indian Ocean’s observational network is backed by NOAA. Without this backbone, early warnings for floods, heatwaves, and storms will weaken, putting millions at risk.” With the public focus on Trump’s many other bizarre actions and policies, the situation in NOAA is not likely to get much attention but it could have very negative implications for the people of South Asia.
The combination of local air pollution and global climate change is likely to have a profound impact on every part of South Asia whether from rising temperatures and floods inland or sea rise drowning coastal areas. Where the people who are going to be impacted can migrate to in order to survive is very difficult to think about let alone predict. At the present time, millions of people from South Asia are migrating in search of employment opportunities, many to the Gulf countries and some to the U.S. and Europe. In fact, undocumented migrants from India are now estimated to be the third largest number behind Mexico and El Salvador. Trump’s cruel theater of deporting shackled illegal Indian migrants back to their home country in military aircraft is clearly aimed at discouraging Indians and others from seeking better economic opportunities by entering the US illegally. However, when the lure of better economic opportunity is replaced by the pressure of sheer survival, one wonders how humanely the countries of the Global North will react.
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